Prices continue to rise by double-digits in San Diego County. The 21.8% increase in the median price, year-over-year, is the eighth month in a row the median price has risen by double-digits.

The rapid decline in the number of bank-owned and short sales has moved the statistical pricing numbers up rapidly because bank-owned and short sales sell for a lower price than normal sales.

In January 2011, distressed home sales were 38.5% of all sales. Last month, distressed sales only accounted for 13.4% of sales.

We expect price increases to moderate near the end of the year.

April Market Statistics

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 2.1% year-over-year. Home sales had been higher than the year before for twenty-two straight months.

Lower inventory is driving prices higher which will eventually bring more sellers into the market thereby ameliorating price increases. We don’t expect inventory levels to increase much until the end of the year.

Sales Momentum…

for homes dropped 0.7 of a point to +13.2. Condo sales momentum rose 0.8 of a point to +3.6.

Pricing Momentum…

made another solid gain last month, rising 1.5 points to +10.1. Condo pricing momentum gained 2.5 points to +17.

Condo Statistics…

The median price for condos gained 38.3% year-over-year. That’s ten months in a row the median price has risen by double-digits.

Sales were off 0.6% from last April.

Condo inventory was down 36%, while pending sales rose 8.1%.

The sales price to list price ratio for condos was at 100.4%.

Mortgage Rate Outlook

May 10, 2013 -- There were not many fresh additional economic signals out this week to work with, but with the better-than-hoped for April employment report driving stock markets higher, less might actually be better, since rising equity prices often drag interest rates upward with them.

That was much the case this week, as popular market indicators like the Dow Jones Industrial Index posted new record highs. Given the optimism already expressed here, it does make one wonder what will happen when the economy really begins to fire on all cylinders.

Regardless, the chase for returns higher than the puny ones seen on safe-haven Treasuries is a bit of a siren song for cash, and money flowed out of bonds and into stocks this week, lifting rates. A portion of the late winter-early spring decline in rates was erased this week, and some more seems likely.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by seven basis points (0.07%) to 3.68%, rising from 2013 lows. Meanwhile, the FRMI's 15-year companion managed a just five basis point lift (0.05%) to 2.91% for the week. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs followed along with a five basis point increase of their own, trekking to an average rate of 3.31%, while the most popular ARM -- the 5/1 Hybrid -- stayed closer to last week's all-time record lows with just a two hundredths of a percentage point (0.02%) blip to 2.59% for the week.

Mortgage rates moved upward this week a little, and seem poised to do so again next week. We are presently about (n basis points) below the peak for rates so far this year, and while we won't retest them in the coming week, we may wander back there before too long, should the good economic news persist. Although that may trim the value of a refinance or two, the big picture isn't changed or diminished: rates will remain near record low levels, and if the Fed can be believed, may be becoming easier to get, too.

Foreclosure statistics

Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Diego County were down 45.9% in April from the year before, but were up 15.9% from March.

Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, fell 8.5% from March, and were down 45.5% year-over-year.

After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.

Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.

In April, cancellations were down 11.7% from March, but were up 15.8% year-over-year.

Properties going back to the bank were flat compared to March, but were down 61.6% compared to April 2012.

The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed declined by 36% in April compared to April 2012. But, they were up 5.9% from March.

The total number of properties scheduled for sale were down 11.9% from March and declined by 65.3%, year-over-year.

The total number of properties owned by banks dropped by 5.5% from March and were off by 38.7% year-over-year. That still leaves about 2,734 bank-owned properties in the county, which is less than four weeks of supply.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com.